1. After recognizing South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent countries, Russia’s President Medvedev warns that his country is not afraid of a new Cold War.

2. An FBI memo reports that Muslim Brotherhood (according to a source) has a six-stage plan to institute Sharia law in the U.S. According to the memo, the MB is said to be in the first phase of this plan. This consists of embedding itself in the U.S., particularly the government and universities. Read the whole article, written by yours truly.

3. One survey shows strikingly high levels of extremist beliefs among Muslim students in the United Kingdom. Many experts warn that the Muslim community in Europe is a likely breeding ground for extremists after the Arab world. It appears the community hasn’t been assimilated like the American-Muslim community has. While the survey is frightening, there are some bright spots. On topics like women’s rights, respecting Jews, and the compatibility of Islam with secularism, the British-Muslim students seem more Westernized.

4. The SANE organization has found that Wahhabi propaganda and beliefs have crept into about 80% of American mosques. Of course, this does not mean that the majority of Muslims follow these views. But this does demonstrate the reach of the Saudi Wahhabists and the need for a large, well-funded moderate Muslim infrastructure. The problem is that the Saudis have a monopoly on funding, building and supplying Islamic institutions.

The Wahhabist campaign to hijack Muslim communities in the West is ongoing, but luckily Wahhabism just isn’t a fad that is catching on. Much like fanny-packs, it’s time has passed. That, however, doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t be considered about the proliferation of extremism. Remember, it only took 19 extremists to carry out 9/11.

5. Shiites in Najaf are warning they will fight to prevent Kirkuk from becoming part of the Kurdish region. The Kirkuk dispute is the last major political issue that could unravel the progress in Iraq. It will be very difficult to find a compromise between the Kurds who want Kirkuk part of their territory, and those who wish to keep it as Arab. Mix in the Turks and the oil supplies and you have a potentially explosive situation. Let’s hope that some sort of revenue-sharing and proportional representation system can be worked out.

1. Russia is threatening to stop NATO supply lines to Afghanistan that run through Russia and central Asia. The Russians also say that NATO’s suspension of military cooperation with Russia invalidates the agreement to allow NATO to use Russian air space and bases in Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.

2. North Korea has stopped the dismemberment of its nuclear reactor, arguing that the U.S. failed to uphold its part of the agreement by keeping the Stalinist regime listed as a state sponsor of terrorism. The North Korean government says it may even begin work to restore the reactor, allowing them to produce plutonium-based nuclear weapons.

3. The Syrian state-controlled press endorses the Obama-Biden ticket.

4. The U.S. has denied the Iraqi PM’s claims that an agreement to withdraw U.S. combat forces from Iraq by the end of 2011. This sort of he said-she said has gone on before between the U.S. and Iraqis. My guess is that the new Iraqi government isn’t skilled in the art of politics and media just yet, and jumped the gun with the announcement. I believe that once the final agreement is reached, you will see a flexible timeline with a targeted date for the withdrawal of U.S. troops.

5. Russia has formally recognized the Abkhazia and South Ossetia regions of Georgia as independent countries. Independent meaning controlled by Russia of course.

Nearly seventeen years after the bankruptcy and downfall of the former Soviet Union, the sleeping bear we were warned about has awoken.  To paraphrase Robert Kaplan, the days of Mother Russia as grand adversary are back.

Read the rest of this entry »

1. Iraqi Prime Minister al-Maliki says the U.S. and Iraq have agreed on a timetable for U.S. combat forces to withdraw from the country by the end of 2011. Those advocating a timetable will say the U.S. has reversed its position, but the agreement hasn’t been finalized. Most likely, the finished product will say the timetable rests upon the security situation staying as hopeful as it is today. Should additional forces need to be sent in, or U.S. forces be needed to enter areas they’ve withdrawn from, there will probably be a legal framework to accomplish this. U.S. forces will probably not be able to act unilaterally, an obvious consequence of the Iraqis reasserting their sovereignty.

Even if this is a rigid timetable, this does not change the fact that the surge was the most important decision made in Iraq since the invasion. Safely executing a rigid timetable would not have been possible without the success of the surge. While critics of the war may argue, “we were right, we were right,” about the timetable, the truth is that some sort of organized, flexible plan was always something that had to be drawn up. The difference is that some critics called for a rigid timetable that would be followed regardless of the circumstances and the negative repreccusions that would follow; and others called for a loose timetable that would aim to minimize any problems that would follow and solidify our gains.

2. Much has been made of the divisions in the Iranian regime. Generally, experts saw a split between the Khatami/Rafsanjani camp and the Ahmadinejad camp. Many reports indicated that Ayatollah Khamenei was not in favor of Ahmadinejad, and saw him as a rival. Many observers actually thought Ahmadinejad was seeking to replace Khamenei.

However, Khomeini has essentially endorsed Ahmaedinejad, saying he believed he’d win re-election for four more years in 2009. Perhaps Khomeini is seeing potentially fatal fissures in the government that we are unable to see.

3. This is a very interesting account of how the CIA used individiduals involved in the A.Q. Khan network to gain intelligence on the Libyan and Iranian nuclear programs, going so far as to sell them sabotaged equipment.

4. Moqtada al-Sadr is said to be in Qom, Iran receiving a religious education. Apparently, they are grooming him to be a Nasrallah-like leader (the spiritual leader of Hezbollah) in Iraq. The Iranians seem to be trying to use him as a rival to Ayatollah Al-Sistani, the leader of the Shiites who is rather moderate.

5. Shahab, an Al-Qaeda affiliate, has taken control of southern Somalia.  The group’s success is largely due to alliances alliance with the Hiwaye clan, which shows that another Anbar-like movement is needed here. Unfortunately, in order to turn the population against Al-Qaeda, sometimes they need to be exposed to Al-Qaeda rule. They will become repulsed by it and will revolt. The question is how long it will take for that to occur, whether a third party (like the U.S. or Ethiopians) will be around to encourage a revolt and challenge their oppressors, and how many terrorists Al-Qaeda will train and dispatch from this safe harbor before it is lost.

1. Barack Obama has chosen Senator Joe Biden as his running mate. As this site primarily deals with national security, that will be how we analyze the choice. Obviously, this helps Obama deal with his lack of experience and credibility on foreign policy. Biden knows his stuff and whether you agree with him or not, his knowledge can not be doubted.

On the one hand, Biden did consistently say not enough troops were in Iraq. He deserves credit for this. On the other hand, as soon as President Bush called for the surge, Biden said it was a bad move and the time for high troop levels had passed. This is a bizarre turn-around and I can only attribute it to Biden’s natural reflex to oppose anything the President was for, despite Biden’s previous feelings on the issue.

Biden also can be praised for voting to fund the troops in Iraq despite his opposition to the war and the extreme political pressure from the left to vote against it. Biden has shown himself to be a great supporter of our troops.

Biden was the only presidential candidate with a detailed plan for Iraq and deserves credit for that as well.. The plan was credible and well thought-out. It involved having a weak central government and three autonomous regions, one for Sunni, Shiite and Kurd.

Biden’s plan would have prevented today’s success, though. It involved a drawdown in U.S. forces, and likely would have resulted in fighting over the mixed Shiite-Sunni areas in Iraq. This potential conflict would have required more U.S. forces, but according to his plan, we’d have less available than before. This division of Iraq would also have reduced the need for moderate Iraqi politicians who can work across sects, and therefore would have empowered the more radical elements of Iraqi society concerned only with their individual sects.

Biden’s plan would have validated the widespread suspicion of Middle Easterners that the U.S. sought to dismember Iraq. As someone who talks to lots of Iraqis, I cannot express enough how many Iraqis feared this and thought the U.S. goal was to divide the region, specifically Iraq, along sectarian lines in order to weaken it. The psychological affects of Biden’s plan would have been extremely negative. It offended Iraqis, made them again suspicious of U.S. intentions and would have made them go to the militias, yet again, for security. In fact, when Biden’s plan was proposed in Congress, there was a nationalist outburst in Iraq. Pushing this plan on the Iraqis would have been imperialism. If the Iraqis wanted to divide among themselves, that is their deal, not ours.

Finally, Biden’s plan would have denied the U.S. and the Iraqis the success we’ve seen lately. That’s the biggest concern I have about Biden. While highly intelligent, he either lacked the political guts to support the surge or was simply wrong on the most criticial decision in the region since the original invasion.

We must also look to Iran. Joe Biden must understand Iran as well as anyone given his experience. Yet he voted against designating the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps as a terrorist organization, resulting in sanctions against the,. This is the branch of the military used by the mullahs to kill Coalition forces and our troops, and is one of the primary supporters of terrorism. Terrorism will not end or be sufficiently degraded without the IRGC being defanged. In addition, by placing sanctions on the group, we can apply additional pressure on the Iranian regime. That is not a stepping stone to war–it simply is a diplomatic maneuver that increases the chances of a diplomatic solution to the conflict. Joe Biden voted against it.

I make these statements not out of partisanship. I very much like Joe Biden as a person, and love his style. He is straight-forward, sometimes politically incorrect. He’s my type of guy. But his failure to support the surge and his vote against labeling the IRGC as “terrorist” leads me to be dissapointed with the choice of Joe Biden as VP.

2. Russia is sending a naval contingent consisting of an aircraft carrier, the Russian Navy’s biggest missile cruiser, and at least four nuclear submarines to Syria’s Tartus port. The controversial Debkafileclaims that Syria is agreeing to convert the port into a Russian naval base where ships carrying nuclear weapons will permanently dock. This sounds like the type of retaliation Russia threatened in response to the missile sheild, as well as payback for Israeli and American support of Georgia.

1. FrontPageMag.com has an excellent interview with Ishmael Jones, a former deep-cover CIA operations officer. His criticism of the CIA is frightening, and he recommends essentially dismantling the CIA, turning it into an OSS-like force. He calls for transferring all CIA offices and personnel inside the U.S. to the FBI; all embassy-based activity to the State Department; and all human intelligence gathering to the military. Anyone who has read Ken Timmerman’s book, Shadow Warriors, is likely to agree with Jones. In terms of intelligence gathering, the U.S. military seems to have far outperformed the CIA in Iraq. While this solution may work, it’s highly unlikely any administration would have the guts to do it.

2. The Taliban is increasingly relying upon suicide bombers for mass attacks in Pakistan. The latest attack targeted a military site that may house some of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons and killed 70 people. The Taliban is committing the same mistake as Al-Qaeda–enraging your passive supporters. One day very soon the Pakistani military will be sent in to every safe harbor and the Taliban will regret making this mistake.

3. According to a congressional hearing, Iran has been practicing how to launch an EMP strike on the U.S., which is the detonation of a nuclear weapon at high altitudes resulting in the frying of all electronic equipment for incredibly huge distances (potentially the entire US if one is detonated above Nebraska). This is the biggest threat from Iran. Should Iran successfully pull this off, the U.S. will likely not know who the attacker even is and will lack the ability to retaliate. It’s a relatively cheap and easy attack to pull off as well. An Iran with nuclear EMP capabilities presents a threat that can not be overestimated.

4. The California assembly has rejected a bill that would require teachers at public schools to sign a statement saying they are not involved with terrorist organizations and do not seek to overthrow the U.S. government.  Perhaps the assembly felt this was unnecessary. Based on personal experience, I must caution that people do not underestimate the anti-American nature of teachers and professors in this country. There’s been more than a few times I’ve met teachers or professors who blatantly or subtely rampage against the capitalism and democracy of the U.S., and say things like “Communism isn’t bad, Stalin just didn’t do it right.”

5.  Hugo Chavez has been funding a charity in Washington D.C. that supports illegal immigrants. It is hard to see what Chavez gets out of this. It appears that he thinks this will build a base of support for his radical socialism and himself as a leader among America’s lower social classes. While I’ve encountered some admiration for him in the past (I was heckled at a speech I gave by a Chavez supporter in 2006), I haven’t seen such efforts pay off for him. It seems people just take his money and forget the source. Which, ironically, demonstrates the flaws of socialism.

1. A Saudi newspaper says that a senior Al-Qaeda official in Yemen named Abu Haman  is being funded by Iranian and Libyan elements. It’s unclear if the Libyan government is blamed for the funds as there are radical Islamic Libyan groups that exist who oppose Gadhafi. As for Iran, it is safe to assume the mullahs are behind this. There has been pretty heavy fighting in Yemen lately and Iran has long been accused of sponsoring Shiite militants in the country. This is one of the first times Iran has been tied to Al-Qaeda in Yemen, though.

2. A Bahraini citizen has admitted to sending money to an Al-Qaeda operative in Iran and being trained in the Ain Al-Hilweh refugee camp in Lebanon. This confirms that Al-Qaeda is being housed in Lebanon and that Al-Qaeda is also being harbored by Iran, despite the supposedly impenetratable Shiite-Sunni barrier.

3. Confirming previous reports about Russia building bases in Syria, Bashar Assad saysthat Syria would house Russian Iskander missiles in order to counter a U.S. missile shield.

4. FrontPageMag.com reports on positive developments in Afghanistan, such as the growth of the Afghan security forces, the decrease in civilian casualties and the decrease in gun battles with the Taliban. While I agree that the media is going a bit far in its portrayals of the war there, significantly more resources are still required, as is action on the Pakistani side of the border. The U.S./Afghan government is winning, but at a very slow pace. Victory is not certain, and reports continue to creep in of Taliban-friendly militants controlling parts of Afghanistan. Perhaps the civilian casualty count is dropping because the Taliban is simply solidifying its holdings.

5. There’s a great new online presentation available about the Muslim Brotherhood and its offshoots in the U.S. titled “Jihad in Academia.” Check it out here.

1. China is still persecuting Christians during the Olympics. Christianity may actually be the catalyst for causing dramatic changes in the Chinese government. It’s message debunks Communist philosophy, and the Christians crying out for freedom are most likely to spur demonstrations and acts of defiance. I once read that China is destined to become the largest Christian nation this century. If there truly is an explosion of Christianity in China, then it’s possible that China is becoming the new Iran, where the leadership is hostile to the U.S. but the people are hungry for freedom and better relations.

2. Russia is warning that its response to the U.S.-European missile defense system will go beyond diplomatic retaliation. Most likely, that means developing nuclear missiles that can defeat the system. Russia may also be using the disagreement to justify the opening of bases in Syria.

3. Bill Roggio has new information on a terrorist group in Iraq sponsored by Iran. The League of the Righteous is funded by Iran and carries out assassinations of both Iraqis and members of the Coalition. The group consists of members who splintered from the Mehdi Army, indicating that this may simply be an Iranian front group or at the least, a group of terrorists fully backed and perhaps directed by Iran.

4. Hugo Chavez has publicly offered to host the Russian navy. This is obviously Chavez’ way of obtaining protection from Russia and boosting his credentials as the new Fidel Castro, as well as a way to curry favor with his favorite arms supplier. Don’t be surprised to soon see Russia announce the construction of new bases in Venezuela and Syria.

1. The Strata-Sphere.com blog has fantastic coverageof the birth of an Awakening-like movement in the tribal areas of Pakistan. Tribes in the North-West Frontier Province have started security details to kick out Taliban militants and three tribes in the Federally-Administered Tribal Area (FATA), specifically Kuram, have called for the Pakistani military to enter the area, doubling the previous number of tribes in the area doing so.

2. The Hezbollah-Salafi agreement in Lebanon did come to pass. It basically calls for Muslim unity against the U.S. and Israel. But (surprise, surprise) the Salafis that signed the document are said to be connected to Syrian intelligence and not representative of the Sunni community as a whole. However, the extremists engaged in violence have been connected to Syria so this may indicate that the Syrians are trying to unite their proxies and reduce the violence for the time being.

3.  While extremely long, this piece brings to light the horrors taking place in Burma. The U.S. needs to start cultivating the dissident community and pursuing regime change (which doesn’t necessarily have to be through military action). Not only is it the right thing to do, but it is in America’s best interest.

An isolated dictatorship like Burma is far more likely to side with China, Russia and Iran than the U.S. In addition, there have been reports in the past of the Burmese government trying to build a nuclear program with Russian and North Korean assistance. We’ve got enough rogue states to deal with at the moment, so the U.S. should look into ways to destabilize this government, perhaps through breaking the information blockade via radio and satellite broadcasts. Or, we can call Rambo.

It’s a very slow day as the Obama VP buzz takes hold, so only three news items are available for today.

1. The lovely Gerhard Schroeder, the former chancellor of Germany known for his firm opposition to U.S. foreign policy, is back, and just as pro-Russian and anti-American as ever. His take on the Russian-Georgian War?

“But the moment that triggered the current armed hostilities was the Georgian invasion of South Ossetia. This should not be glossed over.”

In the interview, he dismisses the idea of a “Russian threat” and says he feels the conflict with Georgia shouldn’t be a reason to terminate, even temporarily, the Russian-German “strategic partnership.”

Well, while Russia may have lost Germany as a strident anti-American ally in recent years, they did gain a high-profile lobbyist.

2. Peter Bergen addresses the question of whether Al-Qaeda is “dead or alive” in The Washington Post saying he does not expect the group to successfully carry out an attack in the U.S. in the next five years. He lists various positive developments, notcing that extremists in European Muslim communities no longer travel to Iraq for jihad since doing so would be suicide and fruitless. On the other hand, he warns about the upticks in violence in Afghanistan and Pakistan and the fact that the European Muslim community isn’t as integrated into Western society as much as in the U.S., resulting in higher levels of extremist beliefs.

Hopefully this trend in Europe changes or the U.S. will actually miss the days of Chirac.

3. The Ukraine is doubling-down on its relationship with the West. The Ukraine is offering to participate in the U.S./European missile defense system and specifically offered to use a Soviet-constructed base on its territory for the system. In the world of international relations, that’s essentially the Ukraine giving the middle finger to Russia.

One must admire the Ukraine’s bravery lately. Russia raised all hell about Poland’s decision to participate in the system, even warning they could be targeted with nuclear weapons. The Ukraine, despite the seeing what happened to Georgia and seeing the West’s lack of unity and spine on other issues (like Iran), is gambling that it is in their best interests to fully side with the West against Russia.

Hopefully, Russia doesn’t view its adventure in Georgia as a success, or those ethnic Russian minorities in eastern Ukraine may suddenly get restive and demand independence…

4. According to a former senior official in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, Iran has an assassination unit in Iraq targeting senior officials and party leaders. The force also bribes targeted individuals and uses threats against them (and family members they may have in Iran) to get their way.

This sort of activity has been well-known for awhile. Perhaps the bigger question is the source, a “former senior official” in the IRGC. Does this indicate widespread dissent in the Revolutionary Guards? If so, that bodes well for the security of the West and the potential for freedom for the Iranian people in the future.

5. Pakistani dictator Musharraf has resigned. A new president will be voted on by the parliament in 30 days. The world better hold its breath and hope for the best on this one. Luckily, the activity of insurgents in Pakistan is causing a political backlash, so the political conditions preventing Pakistani leaders from taking action no longer exist. In fact, it’s probably politically wise to be hawkish against the enemy now in Pakistan.